TW Newsdesk, March 12: Despite big debates and speculations, BJP continues to flourish more in the north-eastern states. The question still remains that ‘Is BJP fading?’ Some say that India under BJP has flourished more in terms of many aspects like trade, foreign affairs and many more, but are the people happy? The three north-eastern states recently voted for their new governments and since then the BJP is in the headlines.
India Under Mr Modi, was questioned many times. Some allegation stands still against the Prime Minister of the World’s biggest democracy and its party. For BJP it’s the opposite. BJP under Narendra Modi secured the highest number of seats in the Indian Parliament. BJP grew from 7 seats to around 70 seats in West Bengal state assembly under the leadership of Mr Modi.
Out of the 8 states in the North-east 4 states are directly ruled by BJP. Then why the question is arising regarding it’s failure? Here is a state wise detailed study of the political situation of BJP after the polls of Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland.
Tripura: Tripura was ruled by the left front led by the CPIM from 1993 to 2018. The long standing 25 years regime was broken by Biplab Kumar Deb. As the country elected the saffron party to rule the nation, Tripura too joined the line of same party government. BJP clinched 36 of the 59 seats and a huge change of power began. Since then the Left started losing its power. Though the government changed it’s colour the dark history of Poll violence till date impacts the state polls. As the BJP believes in ‘double-engine’ government Biplab Deb resigned from his office. Manik Saha became the 11th CM of Tripura after the resignation of Biplab Deb. With the start of 2023, the state elections were declared. Violence, Murders, bombings, etc was reported from many parts of Tripura as claimed by the oppositions.
2023 state elections were very crucial for BJP as Narendra Modi is expected to run for his third tenure as the Prime Minister in 2024. TMC also went to put their hands on too with Abhishek Banerjee being the face of the Party. The Party failed miserably getting no seats. BJP and Its ally IPFT retained the power in the North Eastern state but there is some issue that are really concerning for the Ruling NDA before the 2024 Lok Sabha Election. Despite the BJP and IPFT retained the power, statistics says that BJP lost hold in the 2023 elections. In 2018 election the BJP jumped from 1.5% vote to more than 40%. They moved up from 0 seats to 36 seats out of 51 they Contested. The left Front fell to 16 seats from 49 after the 2018 elections. In the 2023, BJP’s seat in the state assembly fell to 32 despites of contesting from more seats this time (55). BJP’s vote share dipped to below 40%. CPIM also dipped to 11 seats from 16 in this election, but their SDF ally INC secured 3 seats from 0 depicting an upward trend for the grand old party and maintaining the image of Main opposition party with 14 seats. A new face emerged securing 13 seats out of 42 contested and standing as one of the main contenders of BJP. Tipra Motha Party or TMP went on to fight the election for the first time with Pradyot Deb Barma as their new face. So, the question remains of whether the BJP is losing it’s hold in the North-east? Or are the local parties a new face of a democratic change?
Meghalaya: The hilly state of Meghalaya has witnessed many political changes and various parties. The state was mainly ruled by the Indian national congress but the regional parties remain the strong contenders in the elections that have taken place till date. The state witnessed political unrests and frequent CM change until INC took over the power ending a 55 days long President’s rule. Mukul Sangma represented congress and was the Chief Minister till 2018. Congress under his leadership lost 2018 election against the NPP or National People’s Party. Mukul Sangma later on joined All India Trinamool Congress and led the party in the 2023 assembly elections in which the party lost miserably. As no alliance or Party got the Magic Number of 31 Conrad Sangma declared a Post-poll alliance with the NDA allies and the local political parties to form the government.
BJP in the 2018 assembly polls contested from 47 seats securing just 2 seats. Though the BJP was the part of the NDA government it had very less power as just 2 MLAs represented the National ruling party in the Meghalaya assembly. Before the 2023 elections BJP accused NPP and CM Conrad Sangma of constant corruption. Some leaders from the saffron tent also stated that the NPP government is also the most corrupted government the state have ever seen. The NDA ally with NPP was broken before the 2023 assembly polls and the national ruling party, BJP took the decision to contest from all the 60 seats. Meghalaya witnessed arrival of Prime minister Narendra Modi and Union Home minister Amit Shah multiple times campaigning for their party before the polls. Amit Shah directly lashed the Ruling NPP government of miss-management of funds. He said ‘”Due to mismanagement and corruption in the state, in 2022-23, the deficit was Rs 1,849 crore. It’s a huge amount for a small state like Meghalaya. As per an RBI report, Meghalaya is developing at the slowest pace in the country.” Despite arrivals of heavy weight, BJP ‘the Modi-Facto’ failed miserably as the results remain the same. After lashing the Conrad Sangma led government multiple times by several BJP leaders, BJP declared support to NPP once again as it tightened its grip in the hilly state with 26 seats.
After 2023 Meghalaya assembly poll results the question of BJP’s fading popularity in the North-east will haunt the national party as 2024 Lok Sabha Polls comes closer.
Nagaland: The hilly state of Nagaland was mainly led by the regional parties, most of the time. Though Indian National Congress tried to rule over the state, it was constantly challenged by the regional parties. Just before the 2018 elections Naga-People’s front broke the allies. The NDPP was formed by the rebel leaders of Naga People’s front. They later on joined hands with BJP and took over the assembly. In 2018, NDPP contested from 40 seats and BJP contested from 20 seats. In 2018 polls, out of 20 seats BJP clinched 12 seats with the vote percentage of around 15.3% while NDPP secured 25% of the state’s vote. Coming to the 2023 assembly polls, BJP and NDPP coalition shared same number of seats. Though NDPP’s number of seats surged to 25 while BJP’s number of seats remained to 12. The vote percentage of the National ruling Party surged by around 3%.
Though the Coalition of BJP and NDPP started its second tenure as the ruling party of the hilly state, the question of the Saffron party’s presence remains. Amid, Lok Sabha elections slated in 2024 the BJP alone lacks of power and adequate seats in the North East. So, is the ‘Modi-Facto’ fading in the North-East with the increase of power among the regional parties? What will happen to its presence if the allies are broken? the questions remain unanswered.
